Topic: Trends - Chasing and Avoiding

[Beth S]

So, I was wondering if we could have a discussion about trends. I know it's a bit of a dirty word among industry folks, but it's something that frustrates a lot of writers.

Comments I've heard recently include:
- No more paranormal/dystopian! Why aren't writers getting the message?
- Ignore trends. Write what you love.
- Please write more xyz (I'm hearing mostly contemporary and MG)
- As long as it's written well, or is a unique take on the genre, I'll still look at it.
- I won't even look at that genre anymore.

I suppose my question is, do you avoid over-saturated genres -- even if it's a genre you love?

To provide an example, I have a project in the brainstorming stage. The idea I had originally was paranormal, but with some work I can wrangle it into a straight mystery/thriller. Should I do this, or should I stick to my original idea? I'm torn.

Any and all thoughts on the subject welcome

[J.Ro]

I think you should write the best book you can - but have an eye toward the industry if publication is your goal. I had a manuscript fall victim to dystopia overload - great comments from editors but basically "sorry, full up, can't buy anymore."  But, that manuscript isn't going anywhere and in a few years, people may be once again hot for whatever trend and it will be waiting (if I still like it :0))

I think though, if your novel can take different paths and you're equally inspired, then why not take the path that has more room for publication?

My two cents 

[JJwrites]

A number of years ago, when I first started writing, I posted a very similar request for discussion on another online writers' forum. I have a background in business, and I was simply curious about what was hot and what was not. I actually made it very clear in my post that I was working on a project I loved, and had no intention of being swayed by shouts of "Trend!" -- I simply wanted to learn more about the industry. Imagine my surprise when I returned to the thread the next day to find a dozen or so extremely negative responses, several of which literally told me that I would "never make it as a writer" if I insisted on being a "slave to trends". Wha, wha, what?!

Needless to say, I didn't stick around that forum long. (And, worth noting - very, very few of the members were published.) But I've continued to see/hear similar attitudes towards discussions about industry trends in many places. (Not here - this group is wonderful about balancing the "art" with the "business" side of writing!) As someone who is trying to make a living as a writer, this has often frustrated me. Personally, I have WAY too many ideas for books -- more than I'll ever be able to write. So, if I'm equally inspired by several different ideas, I think that it makes perfect sense to pick the one that has the best chance in the marketplace.

I would LOVE to see more data-driven discussions about writing trends. That doesn't mean that I'd shoehorn my ideas into a tidy little box to fit a trend...it just means that I want to understand the industry I've chosen to work in. I'll be interested in reading what others have to say here!

[mrh]

- No more paranormal/dystopian! Why aren't writers getting the message?
- Ignore trends. Write what you love.
- Please write more xyz (I'm hearing mostly contemporary and MG)
- As long as it's written well, or is a unique take on the genre, I'll still look at it.
- I won't even look at that genre anymore.

To provide an example, I have a project in the brainstorming stage. The idea I had originally was paranormal, but with some work I can wrangle it into a straight mystery/thriller. Should I do this, or should I stick to my original idea? I'm torn.

Oh, Beth, this is one of the things that's most making me  right now!

I'm querying a, shall we say, "MG, near-futuristic, post-apolcalyptic-but-still-MG-appropriate" novel. Am I still falling victim to the "no more YA dystopian," even though my book is neither YA nor, technically, dystopian? Yup. When I started this book, YA dystopian was on the rise, and I never, ever dreamt this would mean trouble for my book and its timing. Because mine isn't YA dystopian! I simply loved the idea, and off I went. Meanwhile, I was writing, and agents and editors were acquiring dystopian like mad, for publication in, oh, around 2012, and here I am. The train's left the station, although maybe I can still catch a  , and it probably just looks like I chased a trend. I have a few more irons in the fire yet, but I'm facing that I just may have to save this book for another year.

Fast forward to WIP. No genres that seem too subject to trends this time. I'm about halfway through and LOVING it. Recent industry rumblings are that _______ could be the next big thing. Guess what my ms. is? Yep, it's _____. If I don't get it written, polished, and out there, I could miss this train too!

I would avoid over-saturated genres I love -- because I consider myself versatile enough to love and write different types of MG (and am already pubbed in contemporary, mystery, and historical MG). So it's not that I'd write something I don't love, but that I can love something else NOW, and maybe write the over-saturated genre I love later. The trouble is, I don't seem to be so hot at the timing thing.

I no longer trust plain, unadulterated "write what you love." Love's a necessary, but not sufficient, condition. I echo the opinion that a career writer should have lots of ideas to develop, and that the best choice for what to write next is the one that scores highest for you in both the love and commercial categories. And if you've got a tie, pick commercial: highest concept you can, and, as far as you can judge, not a category where they're saying the market's too full. 

[NinjaWoman]

I agree with J.Ro.  If you write the best book you can write, and a story that you love, who's to say what the trend will be when it's ready.  And if it's not trending right that second, just wait a while.  That said, if you can tweek it to jump genres and it's still a story that you love, that you feel is YOU, then why not?  I think the trick is knowing what you can afford to change without diluting the magic.

[Amanda Coppedge]

I think it's just never going to be an exact science. I have been at a conference where an editor said during her intro that she was not interested in dystopian, but in private critiques I know she seemed to get very excited about a dystopian manuscript. There are few generalities, mostly specifics, in this business. And lots of "exceptions to the rule."

[PatEsden]

I think beyond writing what you love, it's important to figure out what your writing strengths are and focus on a genre which highlights them. All genres are in fashion when the writing is amazing and the writer's passion shows through.

[Mike Jung]

I'm pretty firmly in the "write what you love" camp, although I realize there are real considerations to keep in mind when dealing with something like dystopian or postapocalyptic YA, which is saturated at every point on the spectrum. I personally wouldn't give a lot of consideration to "this WILL be the next big thing" concerns, because those concerns don't always play out the way people predict they will. Mermaids were supposedly going to take over the world at one point, but they didn't. While I was querying GEEKS I heard more than one agent say that superhero submissions (not deals, mind you, just submissions) were reaching a saturation point, but I still managed to sell the book. And I still like literaticat's example of a book about vampires, possibly the most oversaturated YA trend of all-time, that turned out to be pretty good. Adam Rex wrote and published FAT VAMPIRE despite the trend, and he did it by coming up with a completely fresh angle on the trend.

[HDWestlund]

I saw a lot of this discussion at WriteonCon this week. (You can access the transcripts, blog posts, and forum here: http://writeoncon.com/) I definitely had a bit of panic set in when an editor said something to the effect of, "If you think it's a hot trend, it's already over on our side and something else is coming. There's a two year lag in publishing, so if it looks hot on the shelves, you are WAY behind the curve." What am I supposed to do? What if I missed the boat for my fantasy book?

And then I realized: There is only one thing I can control. My own writing. I can make my book the best I can do. I can work on the ideas that I love. It's okay if half the editors out there hate fantasy. It's okay if half the agents are weary of it, too. When the book is good enough, it only takes one person to say "yes". (Well, and the one person has to convince the entire marketing team, I know...) But, really. Falling into the tail end of a trend is a scary place to be, but it doesn't mean it's an impossible thing. And if this book doesn't sell right now, maybe the next idea that I love will. And then this one can be book 2 or 3 or 4...

Also remember that people get bees in their bonnets, and start asking for particular things that they will soon become overwhelmed by. Then they will be seeking something different again. It seems like a lot of agents are seeking MG books like mad. (Which, having seen the forum at WriteonCon, where YA manuscripts outnumbered MG manuscripts by 3 to 1, this didn't seem odd.) Does that mean all of us YA writers should start writing MG? Not unless we can do it well and love it. Put attention into your craft and your time will come. At least I sure hope that's how it works!

Holly

[Jen]

I think one key thing to keep in mind about trends (which has already been mentioned here) is that where the market is and where the market is likely to go are two different things. I tend not to pay much attention to what *other* people say is going to be hot and try to look for patterns and make predictions of my own. Because by the time people start really saying that something might be hot, or that something is over, it's too late to be an early adapter anyway.

So rather than watching talk about trends, I try to do a lot of reading and attempt to understand what aspects of books appeal to me, and what aspects I think might be fueling their popularity with other readers.  I analyze the factors that seem to underlie fandom momentum and listen to the way people talk about books that are blowing up. And I look for similarities across multiple trends that might allow me to trace the development from A to B to C. So a year or two ago, I was asking myself "What do paranormal and dystopian have in common, and what's the next logical step?" 

Ultimately, though, this usually ends up coming back to writing what I love, and specifically, what I want to read. I read a ton of YA and my tastes often track with trends, so it's a short jump from "I love X, Y, and Z elements and think that might be what some other readers find so appealing about this genre, too, but I'm getting genre fatigue nonetheless" to "I wish someone would write a book that has all of the things I love, but does these new, different things, too!"

I've also started keeping an eye out for factors outside of the YA world that might influence YA trends. That means tracking Hollywood trends (what's being developed, what's going to be in theaters two years from now, not what's playing now), and also looking at the interplay between YA lit and adult lit.

Honestly, though, I *like* doing all of this. I'm a psychologist by day (and one who studies fiction at that), so figuring out what makes people tick and what buttons certain books push is endlessly interesting to me. Plus, regardless of whether I'm right or wrong about where the market is going, I think that my writing benefits from asking big questions about what the appeal of certain books or genres is, just because I think critical thinking about books (or television or stories in any form) makes me a better writer and also helps me find things I truly will love to write (and would love to read).

[Beth S]

Oh, wow, thanks for all the great answers!

JRo: I think that's where my thinking is leading me. If publication is your goal, it pays to be aware.

JJWrites: I am so relieved this forum isn't like that one! I have to be honest, I was a little worried the pitchforks might come out, but I can see my fears were unwarranted. As for me, I also have ideas in so many different genres, and I'm not someone who sees ideas as immutable. Which is why I find these sorts of discussions so valuable. We must be both creative and logical when building a career.

Mrh: Yes! That's exactly what I'm afraid of. I've had that same experience.

NinjaWoman: "I think the trick is knowing what you can afford to change without diluting the magic." I really hope I can find that balance.

Amanda: These things are both encouraging and frustrating, but I tend to agree. 

Pat: I like that. I feel like I'm starting to understand what kinds of stories my voice best lends itself to. I just hope you're right that my passion shows through.

Mike: I keep hearing that about superhero stories, too, but so few actually get published. It sucks, too, because I LOVE superhero stories!

Holly: Yes, I was at WOC, too, and that's what sparked this discussion for me. One editor said both "whatever you do, don't write xyz" and in the same breath said "write what you love." What if these two sentences are mutually exclusive? I like your attitude, though. There's a lot of wisdom in your post.

Jen: Wow! That's amazing! The cool thing is, I can really see what your thought process was when it came to books like The Naturals. You are a very versatile writer, and I admire that. While I'm not very good and picking why other people like certain books, I'm becoming better and better at understanding why *I* love certain books.

I think the "write what you love" theory is good, to a degree. I think that's where trends come from: Lots of writers writing what they love to read. But what they love to read is already sold and published. It's so hard to be the person coming up with something *new*. I think this is where looking beyond the YA market becomes useful, like Jen said: Adult books, movies and television all intersect with the YA market. I just wish I could see the patterns better -- that, or be completely unaware of them, like a certain famous novelist.

Sorry if I'm babbling. I don't have a firm opinion on this, which is why I so appreciate all your thoughts.

Thank you, blue boarders!

 

[writerjenn]

I suppose my question is, do you avoid over-saturated genres -- even if it's a genre you love?

To provide an example, I have a project in the brainstorming stage. The idea I had originally was paranormal, but with some work I can wrangle it into a straight mystery/thriller. Should I do this, or should I stick to my original idea? I'm torn.

I would suggest writing it the way you want to write it. An agent or editor might ask you to switch it over, but then again, they might not. And why do that editing preemptively unless you believe it's the best vision for your book?

As for trends--I sold two contemporary YAs with male narrators during a time when I kept reading on the internet that such manuscripts weren't selling. Not only are there always exceptions, and new trends starting, but there are also niches--certain editors or publishers who look for a certain kind of manuscript no matter what the larger trends are.

And even when, say, vampires are hot, that doesn't mean every book has vampires in it.

Trend knowledge is probably the most useful not when we let it determine what we write, but so we'll know how or where to pitch a particular manuscript.

[HDWestlund]

Beth, that might have been the very conversation that started my own little panic attack. Best of luck with figuring out your next project. And if you want to talk through ideas with a bookseller (who sees the frontlist a couple seasons ahead), feel free to PM me. I love brainstorming.

Holly

[Melissa Marr]

Sometimes I think this is the perennial of writer topics. I'm going to weigh in on both sides. 1) Yes, of course you should write what you love, but also 2) paying attention to the market isn't bad either.

When I wrote my first book, there wasn't a paranormal boom yet. I got lucky with timing. Mostly. I had seen adult urban fantasy & paranormal romance booming, so it wasn't a huge surprise that a YA boom happened. I also had a daughter who had grown up with Harry Potter (*inserts sigh of love*) and was suddenly looking for "something magic and stuff" but for older readers. I wrote Wicked Lovely for her.

Like Jen, I watch & make predictions. I subscribe to Bookscan, watch adult & MG market, and I attend industry conferences to see what books houses are pushing.  I also watch the international market bc I saw the impact of international sales on my US deals. I disagree with a lot of industry experts on "what's going to be hot," too, so I trust my instincts.  There's no way to truly predict, but it's a fun game. (I also do this with marketing & PR tactics. Again, it's because I find it fun to do so.)

Does that mean "write to the market?" Nope. It means that it's on the list of things I consider when I get out my folder of ideas & story starts. My criteria are:
1) is this fun to me? (+1 if yes +2 if YES)
2) is it different than the last book? (+1 if yes)
3) does it achieve something in my master career goals list (+2 if yes)
4) does that fit in the market now? (+1 if yes)

I think people get confused on the 4th one. It's not writing to the market to hold off on an idea for a while. Markets shift, cycle, and re-cycle. If I have an idea that is overdone now (i.e. vampires), I might hold off bc the same book that gets good shelf space in a low vamp market will get shoved in the stack of other read-alikes in a high vamp market.

A number of years ago, when I first started writing, I posted a very similar request for discussion on another online writers' forum. I have a background in business, and I was simply curious about what was hot and what was not. I actually made it very clear in my post that I was working on a project I loved, and had no intention of being swayed by shouts of "Trend!" -- I simply wanted to learn more about the industry. Imagine my surprise when I returned to the thread the next day to find a dozen or so extremely negative responses, several of which literally told me that I would "never make it as a writer" if I insisted on being a "slave to trends". Wha, wha, what?!

It's, imho, another version of the Literary v Genre or Artist vs Commercial attitude.  I love story, lit, genre, and art.  I also do this as a business. I have kids and parents, mortgage, college funds. This is my JOB, as well as something I love.  Thinking practically about the business aspects of being a writer is no different than thinking practically about being a lawyer or a bartender.  We have to make choices to balance what we do in the career we enter. I worked at rough bars bc it paid better, but there were bars I refused to work at even though it would've been less hours for more money.  Some lawyers are broke doing legal aid; others make bank doing high end criminal defense. Even job requires making business & ethical/personal choices.

Remember too that so called "trends" are created by the industry as much (more?) readers.  Book A does well? Adjust the cover copy on these 7 others so they sound similar. Covers? Oh, that sold so we should put X on every cover.  That agent sold a book we passed on that was HUGE? Buy whatever she brings us next. We lost the auction on that vampire/angel/flapper/adventure/spy/etc book? Quick! Get one like it. Oh, two of the other big 6s have a vampire/demon/cute puppy/future/plague book? We better get one too.

When you boil books to their bones, the "similarity" that is labeled a trend mightn't be so accurate.  Frex, any book with supernatural creature? Reviewers & bloggers quickly call it a Twilight read alike--so does the flap copy. Any book with wizards? or school? Harry Potter read alike. Every possible permutation of dystopian, future, alt-past, fighting, war? All HG read alikes.

All the while YA & MG are expanding rapidly. Subgenres are popping up within it, but journalists need a topic and "what's hot?" draws attention so they label trends.

The real questions, imho, are:
1) Do you want to write it?
2) Is there an audience for it now?

If both are yes, I say go for it. If either is yes, you might still go for it. If #1 (want) is a no, stop. If #2 (market) is a no but #1 (want) is a BIG YES, I say go.

Just my .02 of course...

[Beth S]

writerjenn -- Thanks for your input. I really hope my experience echoes yours as I'm currently querying a book I keep hearing is in a genre that won't sell. THIS -- "Trend knowledge is probably the most useful not when we let it determine what we write, but so we'll know how or where to pitch a particular manuscript." -- is such a good point.

Holly -- I'd love your help brainstorming! I'll definitely PM you as soon as I figure out how to explain my idea

Melissa -- Thanks so much for such an in-depth reply. Your criteria for choosing an idea to write is incredibly helpful. Also, thinking about how the industry has a role in trends really resonated with me. I'm relatively new at this so it's hard for me to see the cycles in the market, but of course you're right. Agents and editors may not be as hungry for paranormals as they once were, but with the right impetus (another Stephenie Meyer for example) that could so easily come around again.

This whole discussion has shifted my thinking somewhat. As an aspiring author, it's so easy to be focused on getting that career started, but maybe I should be thinking about what I want that career to look like. Yes, I could re-imagine this particular idea as a straight contemporary, but that doesn't change the fact that the ideas that get me most excited have otherworldly elements. These are the kinds of books I want to build my career on. So why start off with something that doesn't fit into that passion?

That's just what I'm thinking at the moment.

Thank you all so much for helping me to work through an issue that has been frustrating me for awhile. You all rock!

[HDWestlund]

Melissa, thank you for breaking things down so nicely. I've been wishing I had someone to advise me on which project to pursue next (as I query around with my fantasy that I love), and having a checklist like this is extremely helpful.

And Jen, thank you, too, for putting so much time into your response. Advice from professionals is very valuable.

Holly

[elizabethp]

So--any predictions or places to look into what the trends are doing? I'm tossing around ideas for new projects and haven't settled on one yet.